FISSURE Special · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Virtus.proloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerk
Poloson · 39 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
Virtus.pro
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
560 picks · 784 bans
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 820 bans
Muerta
415 picks · 271 bans
Bristleback
392 picks · 827 bans
Phoenix
391 picks · 594 bans
Dragon Knight
367 picks · 855 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 484 bans
Clockwerk
362 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:30
Xtreme Gaming 67%Virtus.pro 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 51:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAme
Wraith KingDaxak
Templar AssassinXm
Dragon KnightTA2000
Sand KingXxs
Ember SpiritLorenof
WindrangerXinQ
JakiroOneJey
Pugna天命
SilencerRein
Game 2prediction correct23:17
Xtreme Gaming 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAme
KunkkaLorenof
SniperXm
BristlebackDaxak
MarsXxs
Monkey KingTA2000
SlarkXinQ
WarlockRein
Jakiro天命
WindrangerOneJey
Game 3prediction missed13:26
Xtreme Gaming 65%Virtus.pro 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeXxs
SniperLorenof
UrsaAme
TidehunterTA2000
EarthshakerXm
EnigmaDaxak
SnapfireXinQ
SlarkOneJey
Silencer天命
PhoenixRein
Game 4prediction correct22:8
Xtreme Gaming 62%Virtus.pro 38%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAme
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Wraith KingXxs
PangolierLorenof
KunkkaXm
SlardarDaxak
MiranaXinQ
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Elder Titan天命
TuskRein
Game 5prediction correct12:17
Xtreme Gaming 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAme
Dragon KnightTA2000
TinyXm
KunkkaLorenof
Sand KingXxs
TerrorbladeDaxak
SlarkXinQ
SnapfireOneJey
Phoenix天命
SilencerRein
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5