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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 13 games
77%

Virtus.pro

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 786 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
427 picks · 819 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
418 picks · 274 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
394 picks · 597 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
393 picks · 830 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
366 picks · 862 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
365 picks · 301 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 483 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total52% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:23
HULIGANI 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
57% · 151 game46% · 117 games
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Phantom Assassin
Snapfire
Snapfireerase
48% · 247 games44% · 277 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingMalik
53% · 255 games47% · 165 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
51% · 97 games55% · 285 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
51% · 306 games48% · 212 games
WindrangerOneJey
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct18:30
HULIGANI 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
48% · 151 game43% · 69 games
KunkkaTA2000
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
52% · 76 games60% · 47 games
HuskarLorenof
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
49% · 124 games53% · 232 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntermrls
48% · 53 games54% · 73 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Silencer
SilencerRESPECT
49% · 79 games46% · 62 games
RingmasterOneJey
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 52%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2