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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 43 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
66%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
68%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 38 games
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 28 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 27 games
74%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 24 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 793 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 820 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
425 picks · 278 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
398 picks · 609 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
395 picks · 838 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 307 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 878 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 490 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:15
Tundra Esports 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
53% · 324 games57% · 141 game
LunaYatoro
Luna
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
41% · 101 game52% · 184 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand King33
53% · 192 games46% · 154 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
46% · 176 games48% · 324 games
Tinyrue
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
55% · 64 games51% · 54 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 2prediction missed22:26
Tundra Esports 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
45% · 69 games46% · 121 game
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
49% · 56 games55% · 197 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
54% · 177 games52% · 120 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
54% · 81 game48% · 51 game
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
49% · 172 games44% · 66 games
Ringmasterrue
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed9:37
Tundra Esports 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackbzm
52% · 191 game48% · 136 games
MedusaYatoro
Medusa
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
47% · 194 games50% · 272 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Tinker
TinkerWhitemon
53% · 79 games49% · 101 game
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
45% · 259 games51% · 82 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
56% · 155 games49% · 287 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3