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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 13 games
77%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 794 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 824 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
428 picks · 283 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
401 picks · 614 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 847 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 493 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
370 picks · 891 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
369 picks · 312 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:19
HULIGANI 35%Xtreme Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 25:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterv1olent-
53% · 254 games48% · 228 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
53% · 190 games60% · 103 games
KunkkaXm
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
51% · 152 games36% · 39 games
VenomancerXinQ
Venomancer
Tinker
TinkerRESPECT
41% · 71 game51% · 181 game
MarsXxs
Mars
Windranger
Windrangermrls
50% · 184 games49% · 300 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct9:28
HULIGANI 36%Xtreme Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkaerase
56% · 105 games50% · 111 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey Kingv1olent-
52% · 282 games56% · 184 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Mars
MarsMalik
51% · 190 games42% · 115 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
49% · 238 games47% · 184 games
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntermrls
51% · 89 games48% · 310 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 76%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2