European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 35 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
Team Lynx
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Wraith King
StoneBank · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
569 picks · 793 bans
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 824 bans
Muerta
428 picks · 283 bans
Phoenix
401 picks · 614 bans
Bristleback
398 picks · 846 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 493 bans
Dragon Knight
370 picks · 890 bans
Clockwerk
369 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 77%Team Lynx 23%
The model gave 77% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 77%Team Lynx 23%
The model gave 77% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction correct30:19
Zero Tenacity 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenRetsu
Morphlinglightless
Storm SpiritStojkov
TidehunterStoneBank
EnigmaNefrit
SilencerLeBronDota
TuskPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 77%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3