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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 17 games
35%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
59%

Virtus.pro

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 798 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
435 picks · 824 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 286 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 619 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 850 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 495 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
371 picks · 897 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 313 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:33
1w Team 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 1w Team in 58:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
52% · 58 games45% · 232 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
56% · 136 games43% · 17 games
Wraith KingDaxak
Wraith King
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
53% · 79 games45% · 92 games
LeshracLorenof
Leshrac
Windranger
Windrangerswedenstrong
51% · 108 games47% · 90 games
RingmasterOneJey
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskHduo
44% · 156 games60% · 106 games
Elder TitanRein
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct12:40
1w Team 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 50:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
51% · 162 games54% · 211 games
Monkey KingTA2000
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
50% · 278 games47% · 234 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
59% · 120 games43% · 78 games
AbaddonDaxak
Abaddon
Bane
Baneswedenstrong
54% · 33 games45% · 180 games
WindrangerOneJey
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
49% · 241 game48% · 131 game
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct16:28
1w Team 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMunkushi~
55% · 143 games55% · 155 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingSSS
53% · 149 games51% · 100 games
KunkkaLorenof
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
40% · 248 games62% · 138 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Ringmaster
Ringmasterswedenstrong
46% · 87 games46% · 285 games
JakiroOneJey
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockHduo
42% · 114 games51% · 63 games
SilencerJANTER
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3