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European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bikini Bottomloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 1 game
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 1 game
100%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 1 game
100%

Bikini Bottom

Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
aik · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
aik · 4 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
QBFY · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkka
ряф^^ · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
ряф^^ · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 798 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
435 picks · 824 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 286 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 619 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 850 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 495 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
371 picks · 897 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 313 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Bikini Bottom
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 33%Bikini Bottom 67%
The model gave 67% on Bikini Bottom — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Lynx 33%Bikini Bottom 67%
The model gave 67% on Bikini Bottom — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 3prediction missed
Team Lynx 33%Bikini Bottom 67%
The model gave 67% on Bikini Bottom — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteBikini Bottom · 67%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3