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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%

Virtus.pro

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Rein · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 801 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 285 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 825 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
410 picks · 632 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 859 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
378 picks · 324 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
378 picks · 983 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 504 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:6
Xtreme Gaming 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 25:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeXxs
44% · 185 games52% · 11 games
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
47% · 21 game51% · 252 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingXm
57% · 170 games51% · 61 game
AbaddonDaxak
Abaddon
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
46% · 156 games47% · 208 games
JakiroOneJey
Jakiro
Tinker
Tinker天命
46% · 72 games60% · 72 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct34:6
Xtreme Gaming 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
46% · 162 games53% · 336 games
TinyTA2000
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingXm
53% · 153 games52% · 204 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Venomancer
VenomancerXinQ
52% · 61 game48% · 153 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Mars
MarsXxs
50% · 184 games44% · 67 games
TinkerRein
Tinker
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
50% · 263 games50% · 63 games
RingmasterOneJey
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2