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European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bikini Bottomwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bikini Bottom

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
QBFY · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
aik · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
aik · 3 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
ряф^^ · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
ряф^^ · 2 games
50%

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 801 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 285 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 825 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
410 picks · 632 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 859 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
378 picks · 324 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
378 picks · 983 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 504 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:21
Bikini Bottom 45%Hydra 55%
The model gave 55% on Hydra — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaряф^^
54% · 75 games51% · 186 games
Phantom Assassinselfhate
Phantom Assassin
Slardar
Slardarrincyq
54% · 52 games44% · 414 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
59% · 118 games44% · 93 games
KunkkaActor
Kunkka
Tiny
Tinyxsvampire
52% · 305 games
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
49% · 143 games
Game 2prediction missed39:11
Bikini Bottom 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperряф^^
50% · 78 games45% · 77 games
Svenselfhate
Sven
Kunkka
Kunkkarincyq
45% · 44 games53% · 139 games
Monkey Kingmellojul
Monkey King
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
48% · 96 games58% · 91 game
MedusaActor
Medusa
Earthshaker
Earthshakerxsvampire
47% · 54 games
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
47% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 61%
Series resultBikini Bottom 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2