European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangloss 1:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apple City Gang
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 11 games
Tusk
QBFY · 9 games
Marcioften banned
flacko · 8 games
Ringmaster
flacko · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 6 games
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 6 games
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 6 games
Team Lynx
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
573 picks · 799 bans
Muerta
444 picks · 286 bans
Phantom Assassin
432 picks · 825 bans
Phoenix
411 picks · 633 bans
Bristleback
406 picks · 860 bans
Clockwerk
381 picks · 324 bans
Magnus
379 picks · 988 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:33
Apple City Gang 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniperdualrazee
Troll Warlordlightless
Phantom Assassinyowaai
Wraith KingStoneBank
Night Stalkermangekyou
Warlockflacko
MarciQBFY
Game 2prediction correct55:34
Apple City Gang 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 51:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinyowaai
Nature's Prophetlightless
Pangolierdualrazee
TidehunterStoneBank
Doommangekyou
Ancient Apparitionflacko
TuskQBFY
Game 3prediction missed11:30
Apple City Gang 66%Team Lynx 34%
The model gave 66% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 25:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingmangekyou
Nature's Prophetlightless
Tinydualrazee
SlardarStoneBank
Anti-Mageyowaai
Warlockflacko
TuskQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 82%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3