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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 12 games
75%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 17 games
35%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
573 picks · 799 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 286 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
432 picks · 825 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
411 picks · 633 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 860 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
381 picks · 324 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
379 picks · 988 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 504 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total67% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
HULIGANI 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
47% · 127 games58% · 287 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
49% · 175 games59% · 169 games
Sand KingSSS
Sand King
Medusa
MedusaMalik
43% · 93 games44% · 56 games
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
50% · 245 games57% · 72 games
Ancient Apparitionswedenstrong
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
40% · 67 games50% · 123 games
Elder TitanHduo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct42:12
HULIGANI 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
48% · 173 games52% · 260 games
DoomMunkushi~
Doom
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
45% · 414 games56% · 254 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
44% · 282 games50% · 284 games
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
47% · 146 games51% · 315 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Windranger
Windrangermrls
51% · 189 games57% · 91 game
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 67%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2