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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 58 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 36 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 36 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 33 games
88%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 36 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 798 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
441 picks · 286 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
432 picks · 823 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
410 picks · 636 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 860 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
382 picks · 328 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
380 picks · 994 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 507 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head7 – 7
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:16
Team Falcons 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterATF
45% · 297 games53% · 51 game
ClinkzYatoro
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
52% · 257 games50% · 307 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
49% · 303 games53% · 93 games
KunkkaCollapse
Kunkka
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
55% · 84 games51% · 280 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
45% · 79 games51% · 289 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct8:30
Team Falcons 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
45% · 287 games60% · 43 games
ClinkzYatoro
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterATF
46% · 313 games55% · 155 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
41% · 81 game54% · 218 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Chen
ChenSneyking
54% · 105 games53% · 235 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
45% · 87 games50% · 222 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct12:33
Team Falcons 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenATF
44% · 177 games52% · 88 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
42% · 83 games51% · 201 game
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
52% · 282 games51% · 84 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
61% · 107 games48% · 157 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
47% · 109 games51% · 228 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3