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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mosquito Clanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 23 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%

Mosquito Clan

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Vitaly · 5 games
80%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 803 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
443 picks · 288 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 824 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
409 picks · 638 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 859 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
382 picks · 333 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
379 picks · 998 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 506 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Xtreme Gaming 80%Mosquito Clan 20%
The model gave 80% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
50% · 559 games54% · 222 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
50% · 304 games50% · 335 games
BeastmasterPiPi
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusXxs
54% · 328 games44% · 100 games
MedusaVitaly
Medusa
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
53% · 163 games53% · 411 games
ClockwerkMichael
Clockwerk
Silencer
Silencer天命
41% · 55 games48% · 341 game
PhoenixYadomi
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct17:10
Xtreme Gaming 81%Mosquito Clan 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
47% · 166 games46% · 67 games
Troll Warlordpayk
Troll Warlord
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
56% · 114 games50% · 106 games
TidehunterVitaly
Tidehunter
Kunkka
KunkkaXm
54% · 63 games53% · 152 games
MagnusPiPi
Magnus
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
56% · 32 games47% · 199 games
WindrangerMichael
Windranger
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
47% · 213 games48% · 64 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 94%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2