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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 25 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 22 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Davai · 19 games
53%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
76%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 41 game
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 33 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
83%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 30 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 29 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
567 picks · 807 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 292 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
432 picks · 816 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
420 picks · 650 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 860 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
386 picks · 1010 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 346 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 514 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total92% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:18
Heroic 21%Tundra Esports 79%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuma
50% · 99 games45% · 122 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Kunkka
Kunkka4nalog
40% · 118 games55% · 224 games
Doom33
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
51% · 315 games57% · 272 games
Bristlebackbzm
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaMatthew
46% · 295 games59% · 93 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
44% · 161 game53% · 277 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct33:34
Heroic 21%Tundra Esports 79%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
51% · 178 games44% · 252 games
Morphlingbzm
Morphling
Medusa
MedusaWisper
49% · 197 games55% · 266 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Slardar
Slardar4nalog
41% · 122 games59% · 273 games
Doom33
Doom
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
47% · 242 games50% · 179 games
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
Crystal Maiden
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
49% · 487 games54% · 256 games
MuertaSaksa
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 92%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2