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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 34 games
76%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 30 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 807 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
441 picks · 297 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 815 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 650 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 860 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
387 picks · 1017 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
384 picks · 351 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 519 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
Team Liquid 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
61% · 83 games43% · 95 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
43% · 236 games48% · 108 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
49% · 259 games52% · 258 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
56% · 72 games44% · 206 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
54% · 77 games53% · 60 games
Naga SirenSkem
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed20:27
Team Liquid 52%Shopify Rebellion 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
49% · 345 games45% · 95 games
SvenTimado
Sven
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
53% · 111 games52% · 221 game
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbryle-
47% · 113 games45% · 188 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
48% · 48 games52% · 76 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
53% · 58 games59% · 95 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2