ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 27 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 21 game
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Tinysignature
SumaiL · 20 games
Muerta
OmaR · 18 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Pugna
GH · 17 games
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
569 picks · 807 bans
Muerta
441 picks · 297 bans
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 815 bans
Phoenix
422 picks · 650 bans
Bristleback
405 picks · 860 bans
Magnus
387 picks · 1017 bans
Clockwerk
384 picks · 351 bans
Pangolier
379 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total74% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:34
Nigma Galaxy 36%PARIVISION 64%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 57:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingGhost
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Dark SeerSumaiL
Tinker9Class
Sand KingNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerDM
TuskOmaR
RazorNo[o]ne
SilencerGH
JakiroDukalis
Game 2prediction correct10:34
Nigma Galaxy 34%PARIVISION 66%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinGhost
MeepoSatanic
LycanNo!ob
TinyNo[o]ne
Storm SpiritSumaiL
EnigmaDM
Keeper of the LightGH
RingmasterDukalis
TuskOmaR
Night Stalker9Class
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 74%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2