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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
РАБОТЯГИloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 16 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 12 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%

РАБОТЯГИ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 8 games
25%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
spirit · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
lupsione · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mirele · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
asdekor_r · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 809 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 298 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 812 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
424 picks · 649 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 862 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
385 picks · 354 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1025 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 518 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:39
Natus Vincere 77%РАБОТЯГИ 23%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by РАБОТЯГИ in 1:05:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
42% · 161 game52% · 102 games
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
Nature's Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
56% · 92 games54% · 255 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinySancity
46% · 282 games49% · 158 games
Tidehunterspirit
Tidehunter
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
56% · 162 games44% · 219 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
50% · 116 games53% · 79 games
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct25:24
Natus Vincere 78%РАБОТЯГИ 22%
The model gave 78% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuragi
45% · 150 games45% · 184 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBOOM
60% · 152 games52% · 248 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
47% · 364 games47% · 106 games
Medusaspirit
Medusa
Magnus
MagnusAri
54% · 219 games52% · 163 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Silencer
SilencerKaori
51% · 63 games47% · 247 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct19:21
Natus Vincere 78%РАБОТЯГИ 22%
The model gave 78% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYuragi
44% · 5 games39% · 185 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
48% · 311 games52% · 213 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
54% · 162 games53% · 73 games
Slardarspirit
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockKaori
56% · 119 games45% · 270 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Magnus
MagnusAri
53% · 199 games50% · 55 games
Silencerasdekor_r
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 92%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3