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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 23 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 16 games
56%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 12 games
25%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 12 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 12 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 10 games
30%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 809 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 298 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 812 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
424 picks · 649 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 862 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
385 picks · 354 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1025 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 518 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:22
Xtreme Gaming 73%OG 27%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
47% · 219 games44% · 361 game
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
54% · 210 games52% · 250 games
Ember SpiritStormstormer
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyXm
48% · 442 games56% · 113 games
SlardarDavai
Slardar
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterXinQ
51% · 79 games48% · 144 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition天命
59% · 66 games43% · 148 games
WindrangerDaze
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct32:29
Xtreme Gaming 74%OG 26%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
48% · 153 games52% · 244 games
Gyrocopter423
Gyrocopter
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
48% · 162 games53% · 154 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
54% · 197 games52% · 191 game
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
48% · 112 games49% · 35 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
46% · 168 games49% · 168 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 86%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2