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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
52%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 17 games
35%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
40%

Virtus.pro

Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Antares · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 809 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
445 picks · 299 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 811 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 653 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 862 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
386 picks · 361 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
386 picks · 1034 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 519 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
1w Team 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
39% · 204 games53% · 496 games
TinyTA2000
Tiny
Doom
DoomSSS
51% · 192 games53% · 305 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
51% · 338 games43% · 123 games
AbaddonDaxak
Abaddon
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
49% · 224 games62% · 106 games
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
49% · 234 games51% · 162 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed30:14
1w Team 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
62% · 129 games52% · 108 games
MarciTA2000
Marci
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
55% · 42 games42% · 127 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Tinker
Tinkerswedenstrong
51% · 29 games43% · 3 games
Outworld DestroyerSquad1x
Outworld Destroyer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
52% · 88 games37% · 68 games
IoRein
Io
Elder Titan
Elder TitanHduo
59% · 62 games41% · 44 games
RingmasterOneJey
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct13:41
1w Team 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusMunkushi~
49% · 142 games58% · 64 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
50% · 195 games46% · 178 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
44% · 298 games55% · 151 game
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
51% · 70 games42% · 299 games
TuskOneJey
Tusk
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
57% · 63 games52% · 76 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3