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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 19 games
84%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 10 games
60%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
pLAnet · 10 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 41 game
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 33 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
83%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 28 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 809 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 304 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 805 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 662 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 868 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1042 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 523 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:21
Team Tidebound 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingshiro
54% · 7 games46% · 134 games
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Templar Assassin
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
33% · 116 games42% · 53 games
Kunkkabzm
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
51% · 218 games66% · 108 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Medusa
MedusapLAnet
46% · 66 games66% · 65 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
Disruptory`
58% · 49 games47% · 96 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed31:12
Team Tidebound 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
46% · 179 games48% · 105 games
Nature's Prophetbzm
Nature's Prophet
Magnus
MagnusFaith_bian
53% · 195 games50% · 266 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
49% · 292 games52% · 307 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
51% · 259 games49% · 66 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
49% · 110 games51% · 291 game
JakiroSaksa
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2