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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 24 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 22 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Davai · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
76%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 58 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 35 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
88%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 30 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
567 picks · 806 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 304 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 803 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 662 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 866 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1042 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 523 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 8
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
Heroic 29%Team Falcons 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
46% · 194 games54% · 231 game
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
51% · 296 games47% · 188 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
45% · 49 games58% · 188 games
Dark SeerATF
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
49% · 240 games52% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Magnus
MagnusKJ
52% · 176 games46% · 262 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct13:19
Heroic 28%Team Falcons 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
46% · 176 games45% · 243 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
51% · 380 games52% · 465 games
TinyQuinn
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusWisper
59% · 287 games45% · 211 games
MarsATF
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
46% · 296 games54% · 164 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
50% · 251 game51% · 307 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2