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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 32 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 22 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 19 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 19 games
74%

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 806 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 307 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 805 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 666 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 870 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1051 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 524 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Talon Esports 36%PARIVISION 64%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMikoto
49% · 119 games45% · 121 game
KunkkaSatanic
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNatsumi
41% · 172 games49% · 365 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixWs
50% · 201 game53% · 301 game
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKuku
56% · 177 games48% · 74 games
Slark9Class
Slark
Tiny
TinyJhocam
51% · 267 games61% · 75 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct6:28
Talon Esports 34%PARIVISION 66%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 22:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
49% · 94 games61% · 11 games
MeepoSatanic
Meepo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
43% · 138 games57% · 14 games
Wraith KingDM
Wraith King
Magnus
MagnusWs
56% · 120 games56% · 231 game
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Tusk
TuskJhocam
51% · 119 games51% · 60 games
Tinker9Class
Tinker
Silencer
SilencerKuku
39% · 63 games47% · 218 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 76%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2