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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 26 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 21 game
81%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
SumaiL · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
OmaR · 17 games
47%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
71%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 33 games
76%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 29 games
79%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 806 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 307 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 805 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 666 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 870 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1051 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 524 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:21
Nigma Galaxy 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGhost
47% · 211 games47% · 287 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Puck
PuckSumaiL
49% · 233 games53% · 334 games
Tinybryle-
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixNo!ob
49% · 365 games60% · 167 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Tusk
TuskOmaR
47% · 221 game46% · 228 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Io
IoGH
52% · 74 games50% · 88 games
Keeper of the LightBoxi
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Nigma Galaxy 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaGhost
52% · 44 games49% · 88 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Pugna
PugnaSumaiL
52% · 85 games54% · 113 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
51% · 84 games52% · 176 games
Magnusbryle-
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
45% · 45 games44% · 51 game
Shadow ShamanBoxi
Shadow Shaman
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
52% · 206 games44% · 36 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2