ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 20 games
Tinysignature
SumaiL · 20 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
Earthshakeroften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
Team Spirit
Muertasignature
rue · 33 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
Tusk
rue · 27 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 801 bans
Muerta
445 picks · 310 bans
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 800 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 671 bans
Bristleback
404 picks · 873 bans
Clockwerk
393 picks · 372 bans
Magnus
383 picks · 1057 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 526 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:32
Nigma Galaxy 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciGhost
Troll WarlordYatoro
BristlebackNo!ob
MedusaCollapse
Monkey KingSumaiL
Storm SpiritLarl
IoGH
Dark Willowrue
TuskOmaR
SilencerMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct14:25
Nigma Galaxy 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerSumaiL
MedusaYatoro
LifestealerGhost
Storm SpiritLarl
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
MarsCollapse
MuertaOmaR
Keeper of the Lightrue
Elder TitanGH
RingmasterMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2