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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mosquito Clanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 11 games
73%

Mosquito Clan

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
20%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Vitaly · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 798 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 313 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
431 picks · 670 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 797 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 875 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
392 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
383 picks · 1060 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 526 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Mosquito Clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:22
HULIGANI 62%Mosquito Clan 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomv1olent-
63% · 190 games49% · 149 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painerase
49% · 64 games54% · 169 games
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterMalik
51% · 81 game43% · 83 games
SlardarPiPi
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
48% · 253 games47% · 192 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
39% · 47 games57% · 42 games
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed23:44
HULIGANI 64%Mosquito Clan 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
50% · 95 games47% · 151 game
Terrorbladepayk
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
60% · 181 game48% · 96 games
Queen of PainPiPi
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
54% · 154 games49% · 98 games
KunkkaVitaly
Kunkka
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
53% · 165 games49% · 226 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Windranger
Windrangermrls
47% · 121 game43% · 145 games
Elder TitanYadomi
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct44:27
HULIGANI 64%Mosquito Clan 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
46% · 344 games53% · 320 games
Bristlebackpayk
Bristleback
Magnus
Magnusv1olent-
53% · 187 games52% · 161 game
EarthshakerPiPi
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
44% · 268 games54% · 246 games
Sand KingVitaly
Sand King
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
51% · 219 games50% · 154 games
WarlockYadomi
Warlock
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
58% · 50 games43% · 187 games
WindrangerMichael
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3