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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
35%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 25 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
67%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 28 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 25 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 795 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 313 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 672 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 796 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 873 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
393 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1059 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 526 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total55% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
One Move 52%Passion UA 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by Passion UA in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperDifference
46% · 105 games50% · 101 game
MedusaBatyuk
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEyesight
49% · 291 game43% · 133 games
SvenCrystallize
Sven
Tinker
TinkerGilgir
51% · 52 games51% · 188 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChodΣX
53% · 176 games45% · 52 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
58% · 69 games52% · 219 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct44:18
One Move 53%Passion UA 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
47% · 77 games46% · 81 game
Queen of Painniche
Queen of Pain
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinEyesight
50% · 170 games56% · 176 games
Dark SeerBatyuk
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsChodΣX
46% · 167 games48% · 381 game
TinyCrystallize
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterBb3px
49% · 48 games47% · 55 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGilgir
53% · 334 games56% · 103 games
Bounty HunterFernans
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct34:27
One Move 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinEyesight
46% · 62 games45% · 99 games
MedusaBatyuk
Medusa
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
45% · 67 games58% · 58 games
Kunkkaniche
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerChodΣX
51% · 128 games56% · 143 games
SvenCrystallize
Sven
Warlock
WarlockBb3px
56% · 54 games45% · 37 games
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGilgir
52% · 176 games46% · 150 games
WindrangerFernans
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 55%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3