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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 36 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 33 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 31 game
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
73%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 41 game
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 29 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 795 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 321 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
438 picks · 677 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 793 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 879 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
397 picks · 380 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1071 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:28
AVULUS 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:06:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMo13ei
54% · 179 games53% · 165 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
41% · 147 games45% · 138 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
42% · 112 games54% · 97 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
52% · 110 games54% · 158 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerSoNNeikO
50% · 69 games56% · 59 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct12:27
AVULUS 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
42% · 82 games53% · 80 games
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
Nature's Prophet
Slardar
SlardarMo13ei
56% · 80 games47% · 74 games
Kunkkabzm
Kunkka
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXibbe
51% · 124 games52% · 131 game
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
52% · 75 games50% · 197 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Windranger
WindrangerdEsire
46% · 152 games51% · 31 game
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2