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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 24 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Davai · 16 games
56%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 17 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 17 games
76%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 12 games
75%
Muerta
Muertasignature
y` · 10 games
60%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
pLAnet · 10 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 795 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 321 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
438 picks · 677 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 793 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 879 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
397 picks · 380 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1071 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 66%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:21
Heroic 46%Team Tidebound 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 41:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
49% · 154 games51% · 293 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Medusa
MedusaWisper
51% · 88 games47% · 49 games
RikiNothingToSay
Riki
Sand King
Sand King4nalog
61% · 109 games42% · 198 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
53% · 193 games50% · 55 games
Abaddony`
Abaddon
Elder Titan
Elder TitanKJ
51% · 89 games46% · 38 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed23:3
Heroic 44%Team Tidebound 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Heroic in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
46% · 363 games52% · 355 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaYuma
46% · 137 games43% · 430 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusWisper
55% · 190 games50% · 111 games
MedusaFaith_bian
Medusa
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKJ
55% · 66 games55% · 84 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Tiny
TinyMatthew
49% · 479 games50% · 255 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2