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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 25 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 20 games
85%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 16 games
81%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 793 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
443 picks · 677 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 779 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 874 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 382 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 528 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1075 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Nigma Galaxy 52%Shopify Rebellion 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGhost
42% · 93 games57% · 228 games
BristlebackTimado
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSumaiL
50% · 223 games57% · 106 games
LycanPakazs
Lycan
Medusa
MedusaNo!ob
53% · 68 games40% · 53 games
TinkerSkem
Tinker
Tiny
TinyOmaR
50% · 250 games53% · 96 games
SlardarYopaj
Slardar
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionGH
63% · 29 games42% · 180 games
SnapfireHellscream
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Nigma Galaxy 52%Shopify Rebellion 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGhost
53% · 280 games57% · 170 games
Phantom AssassinTimado
Phantom Assassin
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
58% · 10 games43% · 95 games
TidehunterPakazs
Tidehunter
Sand King
Sand KingNo!ob
54% · 149 games48% · 96 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyOmaR
51% · 351 game46% · 260 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Io
IoGH
50% · 37 games44% · 206 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2