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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 30 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 25 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 20 games
55%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 32 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 792 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 680 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
427 picks · 775 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 877 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
403 picks · 385 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 530 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
389 picks · 1073 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Passion UA
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:29
Passion UA 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniche
49% · 302 games51% · 366 games
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallize
45% · 244 games50% · 270 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsBatyuk
46% · 165 games53% · 87 games
SlardarNefrit
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
46% · 269 games57% · 351 game
GyrocopterLeBronDota
Gyrocopter
Warlock
Warlockkreker
50% · 130 games50% · 36 games
RingmasterPablo
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct27:33
Passion UA 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
44% · 252 games46% · 207 games
SvenRetsu
Sven
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
46% · 227 games55% · 314 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Sniper
Sniperniche
47% · 110 games59% · 370 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
53% · 208 games49% · 136 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
46% · 274 games57% · 44 games
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2