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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
99%1%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Paseka Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 16 games
44%

Paseka Team

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Chuvash · 4 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Egor · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Chuvash · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 790 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 324 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
441 picks · 684 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
424 picks · 772 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 878 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 388 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 530 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1076 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 25%
Hero pool strength63% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total99% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Xtreme Gaming 86%Paseka Team 14%
The model gave 86% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
43% · 54 games50% · 119 games
Lifestealerdizzying
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
55% · 162 games53% · 117 games
SniperEgor
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierXm
49% · 309 games49% · 280 games
BeastmasterDkFogas
Beastmaster
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
49% · 188 games51% · 210 games
MuertaChuvash
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
51% · 62 games47% · 49 games
RingmasterMisha
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Xtreme Gaming 85%Paseka Team 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 21:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAme
52% · 7 games52% · 114 games
Weaverdizzying
Weaver
Puck
PuckXm
52% · 212 games61% · 106 games
EnigmaDkFogas
Enigma
Mars
MarsXxs
46% · 166 games51% · 124 games
Storm SpiritEgor
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
41% · 147 games49% · 45 games
Ogre MagiChuvash
Ogre Magi
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition天命
51% · 48 games49% · 191 game
TuskMisha
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 99%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2