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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 13 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Rein · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
27%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
27%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantress
xNova · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 792 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
453 picks · 327 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
443 picks · 691 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
425 picks · 771 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 392 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 886 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
392 picks · 1079 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 535 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 34%
Hero pool strength62% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
Virtus.pro 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTA2000
47% · 20 games53% · 38 games
Kunkka423
Kunkka
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSquad1x
47% · 98 games48% · 142 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
59% · 122 games52% · 87 games
Sand KingDavai
Sand King
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
44% · 29 games63% · 8 games
TinkerKidaro
Tinker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
52% · 123 games42% · 117 games
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct35:22
Virtus.pro 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDaxak
50% · 122 games59% · 93 games
Naga Siren423
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomTA2000
50% · 232 games49% · 308 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
53% · 267 games44% · 385 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightOneJey
59% · 73 games47% · 25 games
RingmasterDaze
Ringmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
45% · 227 games47% · 110 games
Elder TitanKidaro
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2