?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Paseka Teamloss 0:2
series probability
3%97%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Paseka Team

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Chuvash · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Egor · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
0%
Bane
Bane
Chuvash · 1 game
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
dizzying · 1 game
0%

Virtus.pro

Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Antares · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 793 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 693 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
422 picks · 767 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 392 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 886 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
394 picks · 1079 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 534 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
Paseka Team 15%Virtus.pro 85%
The model gave 85% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightdizzying
49% · 352 games53% · 144 games
Monkey KingTA2000
Monkey King
Lycan
LycanDkFogas
55% · 89 games46% · 65 games
MedusaDaxak
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEgor
47% · 108 games55% · 53 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Tinker
TinkerMisha
42% · 37 games50% · 276 games
TinyOneJey
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterChuvash
51% · 43 games52% · 91 game
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct18:40
Paseka Team 14%Virtus.pro 86%
The model gave 86% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDkFogas
44% · 102 games51% · 284 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Tiny
Tinydizzying
49% · 316 games54% · 197 games
DoomTA2000
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
49% · 215 games61% · 144 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockMisha
42% · 82 games44% · 40 games
UndyingRein
Undying
Night Stalker
Night StalkerChuvash
46% · 70 games52% · 120 games
AlchemistOneJey
Alchemist
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 97%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2