FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Paseka Teamloss 0:2series probability
5%95%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paseka Team
Ringmaster
Chuvash · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
DkFogas · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Egor · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 1 game
Enchantress
Misha · 1 game
OG
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
Enchantress
xNova · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 9 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
565 picks · 793 bans
Muerta
449 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
441 picks · 691 bans
Phantom Assassin
422 picks · 762 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 392 bans
Bristleback
404 picks · 884 bans
Magnus
394 picks · 1077 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% Paseka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
Paseka Team 19%OG 81%
The model gave 81% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinydizzying
Sven423
PangolierEgor
BeastmasterStormstormer
Centaur WarrunnerDkFogas
TidehunterDavai
MuertaChuvash
Crystal MaidenKidaro
WarlockMisha
Night StalkerDaze
Game 2prediction correct23:36
Paseka Team 19%OG 81%
The model gave 81% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerdizzying
Lycan423
SniperEgor
PangolierStormstormer
MarsDkFogas
BrewmasterDavai
RingmasterMisha
WindrangerDaze
BaneChuvash
SilencerKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 95%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2