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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Mosquito Clanloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mosquito Clan

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Matthew · 4 games
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Michael · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%

Virtus.pro

Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 797 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 327 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 696 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
422 picks · 761 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 395 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 889 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
394 picks · 1077 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 535 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:46
Mosquito Clan 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 23:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
48% · 215 games59% · 55 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinParker
45% · 98 games44% · 118 games
MedusaDaxak
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierFCR
48% · 329 games55% · 257 games
Monkey KingSquad1x
Monkey King
Ringmaster
RingmasterYadomi
48% · 36 games54% · 126 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
47% · 188 games53% · 310 games
TuskOneJey
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct21:38
Mosquito Clan 37%Virtus.pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeParker
53% · 106 games57% · 91 game
Nature's ProphetSquad1x
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyPiPi
51% · 149 games46% · 130 games
MarciTA2000
Marci
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFCR
49% · 33 games46% · 100 games
AbaddonDaxak
Abaddon
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
55% · 55 games52% · 57 games
RingmasterOneJey
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerMichael
43% · 106 games51% · 71 game
IoRein
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2