Paseka Team vs HULIGANI — prediction FISSURE Special · Dota 2

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FISSURE Special · BO3

result vs prediction

Paseka Teamloss 0:2

series probability

6%94%

probability at match start · final 0:2

HULIGANIwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Paseka Team

No games played over 6 months.

HULIGANI

Clockwerk

Panto · 20 games

40%

Batrideroften banned

queezy · 19 games

37%

Magnusoften banned

Alberkaaa · 18 games

44%

Beastmasteroften banned

Alberkaaa · 15 games

47%

Terrorbladeoften banned

v1olent- · 14 games

50%

Tinyoften banned

Mirage · 14 games

50%

Enchantress

RESPECT · 12 games

33%

Invokeroften banned

Mirage · 12 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

563 picks · 796 bans

49%

Muerta

449 picks · 327 bans

53%

Phoenix

442 picks · 697 bans

52%

Phantom Assassin

419 picks · 758 bans

54%

Clockwerk

409 picks · 395 bans

52%

Bristleback

402 picks · 890 bans

56%

Magnus

395 picks · 1075 bans

57%

Pangolier

387 picks · 534 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%

Hero pool strength52% Paseka Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total94% HULIGANI

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct5:22

Paseka Team 21%HULIGANI 79%

The model gave 79% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 19:48.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo