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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 32 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
35%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 21 game
38%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 21 game
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 20 games
55%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 796 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 327 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 697 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
419 picks · 758 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 395 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 890 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
395 picks · 1075 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 534 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
Zero Tenacity 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkRetsu
52% · 63 games48% · 133 games
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStojkov
53% · 340 games48% · 105 games
LinaDifference
Lina
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
48% · 212 games56% · 247 games
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
51% · 112 games46% · 175 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Windranger
WindrangerPablo
49% · 129 games48% · 196 games
Crystal MaidenBb3px
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct6:35
Zero Tenacity 48%One Move 52%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyRetsu
48% · 383 games50% · 153 games
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
Phantom Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
46% · 117 games45% · 115 games
UnderlordChodΣX
Underlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
48% · 136 games54% · 210 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Windranger
WindrangerPablo
52% · 136 games57% · 341 game
ClockwerkGilgir
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
46% · 100 games53% · 53 games
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct34:44
Zero Tenacity 51%One Move 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaRetsu
54% · 121 game52% · 109 games
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Nature's Prophet
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
54% · 252 games50% · 228 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStojkov
46% · 396 games44% · 265 games
TimbersawChodΣX
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
46% · 238 games54% · 52 games
SilencerBb3px
Silencer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
52% · 40 games48% · 393 games
ClockwerkGilgir
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3