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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Panto · 20 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantress
RESPECT · 12 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 12 games
33%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
27%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
27%
Enchantress
Enchantress
xNova · 9 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 9 games
22%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 9 games
11%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 795 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 327 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 696 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
418 picks · 755 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 395 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
401 picks · 890 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
395 picks · 1075 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 534 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:26
HULIGANI 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
42% · 160 games53% · 245 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Puck
Puckerase
50% · 141 game51% · 130 games
Sven423
Sven
Medusa
MedusaMalik
46% · 81 game54% · 123 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntermrls
50% · 71 game56% · 116 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
45% · 216 games56% · 55 games
RingmasterDaze
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed31:11
HULIGANI 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 23:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
42% · 145 games51% · 25 games
Meepo423
Meepo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
49% · 150 games50% · 156 games
SlardarStormstormer
Slardar
Tiny
Tinyerase
54% · 201 game56% · 360 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
49% · 164 games50% · 208 games
WindrangerDaze
Windranger
Muerta
Muertamrls
54% · 153 games43% · 64 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 61%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2