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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
РАБОТЯГИwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

РАБОТЯГИ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 7 games
29%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
spirit · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
lupsione · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
zvёzd · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Somnia · 4 games
25%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
spirit · 4 games
0%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Delight · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 795 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 703 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
418 picks · 754 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 893 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
397 picks · 1077 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 533 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:11
РАБОТЯГИ 37%Winter Bear 63%
The model gave 63% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by РАБОТЯГИ in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladessnovv1
52% · 61 game47% · 239 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
45% · 72 games
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderspirit
69% · 9 games
Tusk
TuskWein
56% · 87 games
Silencer
Silencerasdekor_r
50% · 10 games
Game 2prediction correct23:32
РАБОТЯГИ 37%Winter Bear 63%
The model gave 63% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMirele
38% · 54 games50% · 400 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Doom
Doomssnovv1
52% · 81 game
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerspirit
55% · 71 game
Tiny
TinyWein
51% · 130 games
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
56% · 64 games
Game 3prediction missed34:19
РАБОТЯГИ 36%Winter Bear 64%
The model gave 64% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by РАБОТЯГИ in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
50% · 82 games51% · 359 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMirele
38% · 54 games
Slardar
Slardarspirit
52% · 29 games
Tiny
TinyWein
51% · 130 games
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
56% · 64 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 71%
Series resultРАБОТЯГИ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3