?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apple City Gangwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 32 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Astral · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshrac
dualrazee · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 794 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 705 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
417 picks · 752 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 401 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 892 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 1073 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
Zero Tenacity 56%Apple City Gang 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStojkov
53% · 239 games40% · 227 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
55% · 297 games43% · 351 game
Beastmastermangekyou
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyRetsu
51% · 493 games53% · 281 game
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
50% · 154 games46% · 347 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
56% · 149 games53% · 126 games
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed10:20
Zero Tenacity 52%Apple City Gang 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyRetsu
50% · 330 games45% · 185 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
44% · 82 games52% · 53 games
Visagemangekyou
Visage
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
54% · 102 games52% · 411 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerPablo
44% · 113 games49% · 78 games
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
57% · 139 games55% · 39 games
Ringmasterflacko
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultApple City Gang 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2