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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mosquito Clanwin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mosquito Clan

Muerta
Muerta
Yadomi · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Michael · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
67%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 24 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 22 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 792 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 706 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
417 picks · 749 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 893 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 1071 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:53
Mosquito Clan 31%Heroic 69%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:16:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPiPi
52% · 106 games45% · 110 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Tiny
Tinypayk
51% · 371 game43% · 452 games
PangolierWisper
Pangolier
Bristleback
BristlebackVitaly
52% · 222 games52% · 159 games
Sand King4nalog
Sand King
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
58% · 35 games51% · 278 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderMichael
50% · 300 games51% · 35 games
RingmasterKJ
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed21:11
Mosquito Clan 29%Heroic 71%
The model gave 71% on Heroic — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepayk
42% · 165 games52% · 110 games
Nature's Prophet4nalog
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaVitaly
47% · 113 games50% · 302 games
Dragon KnightYuma
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingPiPi
51% · 189 games55% · 86 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderMichael
46% · 308 games61% · 94 games
Naga SirenKJ
Naga Siren
Ringmaster
RingmasterYadomi
54% · 33 games46% · 216 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed31:7
Mosquito Clan 30%Heroic 70%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpayk
50% · 245 games44% · 180 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaVitaly
44% · 58 games57% · 221 game
BristlebackWisper
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarPiPi
53% · 73 games50% · 103 games
Earthshaker4nalog
Earthshaker
Muerta
MuertaMichael
46% · 312 games60% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Ancient Apparition
Elder Titan
Elder TitanYadomi
62% · 86 games42% · 238 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 82%
Series resultMosquito Clan 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3