CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
Y5 Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 791 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 330 bans
Phoenix
440 picks · 710 bans
Phantom Assassin
414 picks · 744 bans
Clockwerk
412 picks · 403 bans
Bristleback
400 picks · 895 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 1063 bans
Pangolier
386 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Y5 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:27
Zero Tenacity 67%Y5 Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterRetsu
BeastmasterDominic
Storm SpiritStojkov
SlardarNefrit
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
WindrangerPablo
Game 2prediction correct48:30
Zero Tenacity 62%Y5 Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 53:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinRetsu
BristlebackDominic
PuckStojkov
Primal BeastNefrit
WarlockLeBronDota
RingmasterPablo
Game 3prediction correct43:13
Zero Tenacity 60%Y5 Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinRetsu
BristlebackDominic
Queen of PainStojkov
SlardarNefrit
JakiroLeBronDota
Shadow ShamanPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3