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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 12 games
42%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
30%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 37 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 36 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 25 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 791 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 332 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 713 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
413 picks · 741 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 900 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 1065 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total50% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:24
Team Secret 51%AVULUS 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by AVULUS in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenParker
45% · 147 games55% · 107 games
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingSupream^
51% · 174 games48% · 366 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
48% · 240 games51% · 204 games
Primal BeastXibbe
Primal Beast
Windranger
WindrangerThiolicor
53% · 156 games50% · 127 games
ChenSoNNeikO
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroPuppey
48% · 168 games51% · 81 game
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct15:34
Team Secret 48%AVULUS 52%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaParker
39% · 65 games51% · 208 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
48% · 135 games52% · 69 games
SlardarMo13ei
Slardar
Sand King
Sand KingMikSa`
52% · 101 game56% · 96 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Windranger
WindrangerThiolicor
46% · 89 games58% · 57 games
Night StalkerdEsire
Night Stalker
Warlock
WarlockPuppey
43% · 70 games53% · 30 games
BaneSoNNeikO
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 50%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2