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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 3:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Virtus.proloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 27 games
37%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
43%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 20 games
85%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 17 games
59%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%

Virtus.pro

Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 788 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 332 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
413 picks · 736 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
399 picks · 900 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 1064 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:12
Nigma Galaxy 51%Virtus.pro 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerSumaiL
49% · 42 games54% · 170 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Sven
SvenGhost
46% · 132 games49% · 229 games
BeastmasterTA2000
Beastmaster
Medusa
MedusaNo!ob
49% · 108 games51% · 143 games
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyOmaR
53% · 380 games58% · 54 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Silencer
SilencerGH
40% · 30 games48% · 96 games
Elder TitanRein
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Nigma Galaxy 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGhost
51% · 217 games51% · 108 games
KunkkaLorenof
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSumaiL
44% · 133 games52% · 181 game
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Medusa
MedusaNo!ob
45% · 47 games52% · 270 games
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
48% · 201 game46% · 65 games
TinkerRein
Tinker
Tusk
TuskOmaR
52% · 130 games56% · 104 games
Bounty HunterOneJey
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct25:10
Nigma Galaxy 51%Virtus.pro 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGhost
48% · 129 games46% · 101 game
LeshracLorenof
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
47% · 196 games59% · 221 game
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Marci
MarciSumaiL
48% · 112 games53% · 140 games
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyOmaR
49% · 302 games48% · 51 game
TinkerRein
Tinker
Silencer
SilencerGH
47% · 35 games52% · 261 game
RubickOneJey
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3