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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:3
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Aurora Gamingwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 14 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Kaori · 11 games
55%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 788 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 332 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
413 picks · 736 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
399 picks · 900 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 1064 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:47
Natus Vincere 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
49% · 245 games36% · 15 games
Wraith KingNightfall
Wraith King
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
39% · 294 games53% · 225 games
Magnuskiyotaka
Magnus
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
54% · 165 games57% · 174 games
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
56% · 228 games52% · 310 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
42% · 31 game49% · 239 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct
Natus Vincere 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct15:38
Natus Vincere 43%Aurora Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
40% · 157 games53% · 151 game
DoomNightfall
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSancity
43% · 94 games59% · 91 game
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
Tidehunter
Abaddon
AbaddonBOOM
46% · 49 games54% · 126 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
47% · 195 games60% · 50 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
53% · 50 games49% · 127 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 58%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3