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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Capy Barasloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Capy Baras

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Lelis · 4 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Lelis · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Infernal · 1 game
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Kiritych · 1 game
0%

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 12 games
42%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 787 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
410 picks · 735 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 1062 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 899 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Capy Baras
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:21
Capy Baras 46%Team Secret 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCopy
51% · 108 games48% · 188 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
49% · 142 games47% · 80 games
KunkkaSupream^
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
57% · 188 games48% · 86 games
SlardarMikSa`
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockFly
52% · 108 games49% · 159 games
MuertaThiolicor
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerLelis
51% · 168 games46% · 201 game
JakiroPuppey
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed28:10
Capy Baras 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Capy Baras in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
56% · 153 games42% · 95 games
SlardarMikSa`
Slardar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
59% · 243 games46% · 181 game
Phantom AssassinParker
Phantom Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackInfernal
45% · 240 games45% · 448 games
TinySupream^
Tiny
Muerta
MuertaLelis
53% · 289 games55% · 53 games
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
Ancient Apparition
Warlock
WarlockFly
53% · 124 games47% · 272 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct5:18
Capy Baras 43%Team Secret 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
49% · 178 games51% · 128 games
Phantom AssassinParker
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
48% · 203 games55% · 179 games
Sand KingMikSa`
Sand King
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
50% · 153 games51% · 65 games
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasterLelis
49% · 32 games48% · 102 games
Nature's ProphetPuppey
Nature's Prophet
Bane
BaneFly
57% · 35 games47% · 127 games
WindrangerThiolicor
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 61%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3