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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
33%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 16 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 784 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
409 picks · 731 bans
54%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 899 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
398 picks · 1062 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
Aurora Gaming 63%1w Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
52% · 179 games43% · 32 games
Wraith KingMunkushi~
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 183 games46% · 425 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 137 games53% · 145 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Warlock
WarlockPanto
51% · 86 games49% · 124 games
Night Stalkerswedenstrong
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
52% · 169 games43% · 28 games
RingmasterHduo
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed24:42
Aurora Gaming 64%1w Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
37% · 186 games49% · 95 games
UrsaMunkushi~
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
58% · 240 games56% · 165 games
Sand KingSSS
Sand King
Dazzle
DazzleTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 45 games55% · 71 game
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Marci
MarciMira
41% · 116 games51% · 324 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
53% · 261 game50% · 193 games
Crystal MaidenHduo
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct28:6
Aurora Gaming 63%1w Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 25:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
62% · 109 games41% · 105 games
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
Phantom Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
45% · 40 games50% · 64 games
LycanSSS
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 84 games42% · 72 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockPanto
47% · 79 games50% · 76 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
53% · 97 games56% · 92 games
MiranaHduo
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 76%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3