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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
56%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Delight · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 784 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
409 picks · 731 bans
54%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 899 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
398 picks · 1062 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Virtus.pro 72%Winter Bear 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTA2000
44% · 5 games46% · 32 games
Bounty HunterDelight
Bounty Hunter
Leshrac
LeshracLorenof
56% · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
47% · 15 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
73% · 7 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
little data
Game 2prediction correct39:11
Virtus.pro 73%Winter Bear 27%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTA2000
46% · 20 games45% · 88 games
MuertaDelight
Muerta
Kunkka
KunkkaLorenof
40% · 6 games
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
60% · 38 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
63% · 20 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
63% · 4 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 86%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2