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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 1:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The MongolZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 12 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 9 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JG · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 9 games
44%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 783 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
408 picks · 729 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 897 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
396 picks · 1061 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 528 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 62%
Hero pool strength58% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total90% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
The MongolZ 25%Talon Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
54% · 217 games46% · 41 game
LunaNatsumi
Luna
Tidehunter
TidehunterJG
55% · 115 games49% · 99 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDJ
55% · 58 games49% · 64 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
43% · 127 games
JakiroKuku
Jakiro
41% · 59 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct10:26
The MongolZ 24%Talon Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomJG
61% · 223 games42% · 86 games
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBob
50% · 319 games45% · 57 games
SlardarMikoto
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterDJ
42% · 27 games48% · 158 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
52% · 161 game
TuskJhocam
Tusk
46% · 107 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct6:33
The MongolZ 24%Talon Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBob
49% · 280 games56% · 72 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Magnus
MagnusJG
58% · 144 games49% · 83 games
RazorMikoto
Razor
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDJ
44% · 88 games50% · 92 games
TidehunterWs
Tidehunter
50% · 100 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
44% · 165 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 90%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3