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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Trailer Park Boysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 18 games
50%

Trailer Park Boys

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 2 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
423 · 2 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
NARMAN · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
eleven · 2 games
100%
Tinker
Tinkeroften banned
Se · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 783 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
408 picks · 728 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 897 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
396 picks · 1060 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 528 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Talon Esports 70%Trailer Park Boys 30%
The model gave 70% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
50% · 71 game51% · 91 game
Ursa423
Ursa
Pudge
PudgeNatsumi
50% · 39 games51% · 147 games
Dark Seereleven
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
51% · 89 games47% · 157 games
Ember SpiritCHYuan
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerJhocam
48% · 104 games51% · 18 games
RingmasterSe
Ringmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKuku
51% · 146 games51% · 36 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct31:23
Talon Esports 68%Trailer Park Boys 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
49% · 150 games48% · 127 games
Medusa423
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
48% · 216 games49% · 272 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerNatsumi
45% · 26 games50% · 106 games
Tidehuntereleven
Tidehunter
Tusk
TuskJhocam
53% · 208 games57% · 30 games
RingmasterNARMAN
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilencerKuku
44% · 43 games56% · 108 games
MiranaSe
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 85%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2